10 Mai

Accounting for Uncertainty when Forecasting Armed Conflict


18:30 Uhr

10. Mai 2023


Center for Advanced Studies Seestraße 13 80802 München
CAS LMU - Stephan Huber, Shining, 2014 (Kunst am CAS, SoSe 2022)

CAS LMU - Stephan Huber, Shining, Art at CAS

© Stephan Huber

Referent: Prof. Håvard Hegre, Ph.D. | Moderation: Prof. Dr. Katrin Paula (TUM)

Håvard Hegre presents the VIEWS armed conflict early-warning system and discusses the uncertainties of armed conflict forecasting in light of a review of its performance. There are still several sources of uncertainty. At the most fundamental level, decisions to use armed force are always associated with aspects of deception, hidden agendas, misrepresentation and bluffing, as well as over-confidence and sheer incompetence. According to rationalist models of conflict, “war is in the error term”. Compounding the problem, the most surprising changes are also the ones that we are most interested in – early-warning systems arguable are more useful if they can predict the unexpected, maybe even at the expense of predicting the expected conflicts.

  • Håvard Hegre ist Dag Hammarskjöld Professor of Peace and Conflict Research an der Universität Uppsala und Research Professor am Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Derzeit ist er Visiting Fellow am CAS.


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