01 Dec

Lunch Talk: Probabilistic Belief Aggregation

Date:

Tue:
12:15 pm

1 December 2026

Location:

Center for Advanced Studies LMU Seestraße 13 80802 München

Speaker: Prof. Marcus Pivato, Ph.D. (CAS Fellow/University Paris 1
Chair: Prof. Dr. Christian List (LMU)

The economist Marcus Pivato is a Professor at the University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and currently a Visiting Fellow at CAS. In his lecture he focuses on an interesting aspect of decision theory: Many decisions hinge upon technical questions on which most people lack the necessary expertise, for example: climate policies, pandemic response, macroeconomics and AI safety. Suppose that a decisionmaker must make a decision of this kind. Lacking the relevant expertise, she asks a panel of experts to assign probabilities to different scenarios. But these experts disagree with one another. What should the decision-maker believe in this situation?

The research colloquium at CAS primarily addresses university members.

Registration

Registration is required for participation. If you are interested in our event, please contact us: info@cas.lmu.de